The F1 ‘Oracle’ – Trying to predict the results for GP #10: Great Britain

In this series of posts I attempt to predict the top 10 of both the qualifying session and the race ahead of qualifying. I will enter these predictions on GuessTheGrid, a website which takes your top 10 predictions and ranks them against other’s.

Before I will present my prediction, let us take a look at how my prediction for the Austrian Grand Prix worked out.

 

Austrian GP Recap

This was a decent result, but not the result I was looking for after Azerbaijan left me with only 21 points and a larger (+10) point deficit to the leaders. Luckily, I had read just before posting that Hamilton would receive a +5 grid-penalty, so I was able to at least get the first two right.

My total of 34 points meant an increase of the gap to the number 1 spot (currently user ‘Pamphlet’) from 30 to 32 points. Lets see if I can bring that gap down this race!

 

Great Britain Prediction

Lets move on to predicting the results for this Grand Prix. The results of FP1 and FP2 you can view below:

 

Based on the results (especially from FP2), this seems to be another ‘traditional’ Mercedes – Ferrari – Red Bull top 6. There is, however, a slight possibility of rain during both qualifying and the race. Behind the top 6, Force India looks comfortable to take positions 7 and 8. True, they haven’t taken those places in free practice, but this is the normal script for them during free practice. Behind them, it looks again to be a toss up between the Williams’, Renaults and Toro Rosso’s. Haas and McLaren look to be behind them for now.

This makes my prediction as seen below, for an explanation of the race result, scroll down further!

Discussion

Just like Hamilton’s grid penalty for changing a gearbox, both Bottas and Ricciardo now have one. I reckon Bottas has the car to at least challenge Raikkonen for the third spot on the podium, but I also think Ricciardo will have a bad time trying to claw his way up in the rankings as he does not have the more powerful Mercedes engine – making overtaking harder for him. I think at least one Force India will finish ahead of him due to time lost behind slower cars such as the Ferrari-powered Haas.

It does look like a comfortable win for Hamilton, but maybe Ferrari can do something with their strategy to lure Hamilton out of his comfort zone as he will probably be followed by both Ferrari’s. However, if he keeps his head cool, I think it will be a comfortable win for the Mercedes.

I hope Max’ run of bad luck ends here. 5th might not be something to write home about, but it is better than nothing. If there is going to be rain during the race, he might be able to reach the podium. I am, however, unwilling to jinx the possibility of a wet race happening, so I went with a dry weather prediction.

 

What do you guys think? Does your prediction align with this one, or do you have a radically different opinion? Let me know, either in a comment, or on reddit.com/r/formula1!

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This is the prediction for my alternative account (FelixDicitDotCom) on GuessTheGrid. On the website, you are able to predict right up until the start of qualifying and the race. I suggest you use the information gained from FP3 to change your prediction for the Qualifying session. And, you can use Qualifying to adapt your prediction for the race. This is a strategy I will employ on my main account (FelixR1991). Some might think this is cheating. Ultimately, it does not matter – since I have no knowledge ahead of the session about the result. Spreading my options between the accounts won’t work for the grand tally, as I won’t know which is the better prediction.

Previous posts in this series:

  1. Melbourne, Australia (36 points)
  2. Shanghai, China (44 points)
  3. Sakhir, Bahrain (34 points)
  4. Sochi, Russia (42 points)
  5. Barcelona, Spain (29 points)
  6. Monte Carlo, Monaco (25 points)
  7. Montreal, Canada (39 points)
  8. Baku, Azerbaijan (21 points)
  9. Spielberg, Austria (34 points)